System Dynamics Modeling for Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Food Supply Chains: A Case Study of Kenya and Rwanda

Disruptions in the food supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have destabilized the balance between production, supply, transport, distribution, and consumption. Consequently, these disruptions have affected food and nutritional security all over the world. This study proposes a framework for investigating the impact of COVID-19 on food supply chains, considering Eastern Africa as a focus region with Kenya and Rwanda as case studies. A systems thinking approach with three systemic components (food and nutrition, COVID-19 contagion, and human health) was applied. The contagion component was characterized by the susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and deceased (SEIRD) epidemiological modeling method. We then applied a causal loop diagram and stock and flow diagrams to map the links and interactions between variables from the contagion, health, and food supply chain components of the whole system. The results reveal that COVID-19 has adversely affected food and nutritional security in Eastern African countries. Key response measures to COVID-19 such as lockdowns, closure of borders, isolation, and quarantining have resulted in labor shortages, increased unemployment rates, loss of income, and the subsequent contraction of economies. The disruption of the food supply chain has negatively impacted the main pillars of food and nutrition security, which are availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability. We suggest direct food supply from local producers to the consuming communities to shorten the food supply chain and therefore enhance food self-sufficiency to reduce the severe effects of COVID-19 on food and nutrition security. Overall, our study provides a useful framework to help design better policies and build more resilient and inclusive food systems during COVID-19 and similar pandemics in the future.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of government intervention strategies to control and prevent COVID-19 in Malaysia by systems thinking

Purpose: This paper aims to identify the interaction of different intervention strategies implemented in Malaysia towards flattening the curve of COVID-19 cases. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, many approaches were adopted and implemented by the Malaysian government. Some strategies gained quick wins but with negative unintended consequences after execution, whereas other strategies were slow to take effect. Learning from the previous strategies is pivotal to avoid repeating mistakes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper presents the cause, effect of and connection among the implemented COVID-19 intervention strategies using systems thinking through the development of a causal loop diagram. It enables the visualisation of how each implemented strategy interacted with each other and collectively decreased or increased the spread of COVID-19. Findings: The results of this study suggested that it is not only essential to control the spread of COVID-19, but also to prevent the transmission of the virus. The Malaysian experience has demonstrated that both control and preventive strategies need to be in a state of equilibrium. Focusing only on one spectrum will throw off the balance, leaving COVID-19 infection to escalate rapidly. Originality/value: The developed feedback loops provided policy makers with the understanding of the merits, pitfalls and dynamics of prior implemented intervention strategies before devising other effective intervention strategies to defuse the spread of COVID-19 and prepare the nation for recovery. © 2023, Jack Kie Cheng, Fazeeda Mohamad, Puteri Fadzline M. Tamyez, Zetty Ain Kamaruzzaman, Maizura Mohd Zainudin and Faridah Zulkipli.

The Perceptions and Use of Urban Neighborhood Parks Since the Outbreak of COVID-19: A Case Study in South Korea.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, the stress of city dwellers is increasing, and some adapt to the pandemic by pursuing physical and psychological well-being in neighborhood parks. To improve the resilience of the social-ecological system against COVID-19, it is important to understand the mechanism of adaptation by examining the perception and use of neighborhood parks. The purpose of this study is to investigate users' perceptions and use of urban neighborhood parks since the outbreak of COVID-19 in South Korea using systems thinking. To verify the hypotheses about the relationship between variables involved in COVID-19 adaptive feedback, two research objectives were set. First, this study determined the causal structure leading to park visits using systems thinking. Second, the relationship between stress, motivation, and the frequency of visits to neighborhood parks was empirically verified. To conduct the research, the system of use and perceptions of parks were analyzed through a causal loop diagram to determine the feedback between psychological variables. Then, a survey was conducted to verify the relationship between stress, motivation for visits, and visit frequency, which are the major variables derived from the causal structure. A total of three feedback loops were derived in the first step, including a loop in which COVID-19 stress was relieved by visits to parks and a loop in which COVID-19 stress worsened due to crowding in parks. Finally, the relationship of stress leading to park visits was confirmed, and the empirical analysis showed that anger about contagion and social disconnection were linked as motives for park visits, and that park visits were mainly motivated by the desire to go out. The neighborhood park functions as an adaptive space for the stress of COVID-19 and will maintain its role as social distancing becomes more important to various socio-ecological changes. The strategies driven by the pandemic can be adapted in park planning to recover from stress and improve resilience.

Using integration definition for function modeling to define operational obstacles in cold chain farm-to-consumer delivery during the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study in Thailand

This study responds to the urgent need of how community enterprise logistics service providers in Thailand would cope with pandemic challenges in cold chain farm-to-consumer (F2C) delivery. This case study aimed to reveal the underlying logistical problems, within the unique consumption context of Thailand, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Thailand is experiencing growth in e-commerce and social media-based shopping, especially during the pandemic. To capitalize on this trend, logistical service providers are looking for ways to expand the direct distribution of items like chilled and frozen food. Therefore, there is extraordinary growth of the door-to-door service business, especially F2C delivery. The in-depth interviews and observations of staff performance were conducted with a temperature-controlled logistics agent. Then, business processes were analyzed with a swimlane diagram and an integration definition for function modeling to identify the activities of key stakeholders and the problems of the agent. Next, the causes of poor service levels were analyzed by a causal loop diagram. To enhance productivity and service levels, the agent should establish supply and demand data collection, implement the proper forecasting and inventory management, design a standardized packing program for chilled and frozen products, and optimize the pickup and delivery routes. © 2022 Silpakorn University. All Rights Reserved.

Individual Workplace Well-Being Captured into a Literature- and Stakeholders-Based Causal Loop Diagram.

This study demonstrates an innovative approach to capture the complexity of individual workplace well-being, improving our understanding of multicausal relationships and feedback loops involved. The literature shows that a high number of interacting factors are related to individual workplace well-being. However, many studies focus on subsets of factors, and causal loops are seldomly studied. The aim of the current study was, therefore, to capture individual workplace well-being in a comprehensive conceptual causal loop diagram (CLD). We followed an iterative, qualitative, and transdisciplinary systems-thinking approach including literature search, group model building sessions, retrospective in-depth interviews with employees, and group sessions with human resource professionals, managers, job coaches, and management consultants. The results were discussed with HR and well-being officers of twelve organizations for their critical reflection on the recognizability and potential of the developed CLD. The final result, a conceptual individual workplace well-being CLD, provides a comprehensive overview of multiple, measurable key factors relating to individual workplace well-being and of the way these factors may causally interact over time, either improving or deteriorating workplace well-being. In future studies, the CLD can be translated to a quantitative system dynamics model for simulating workplace well-being scenarios. Ultimately, these simulations could be used to design effective workplace well-being interventions.

Multi-dimensional impacts of Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on Sustainable Development Goal achievement.

BACKGROUND: Health, social and economic crises triggered by the Coronavirus disease pandemic (COVID-19) can derail progress and achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. This commentary analyses the complex nexus of multi-dimensional impacts of the pandemic on people, prosperity, planet, partnership and peace. From our analysis, we generate a causal loop diagram explaining these complex pathways and proposed policy recommendations. MAIN TEXT: Health systems, health and wellbeing of people are directly affected by the pandemic, while impacts on prosperity, education, food security and environment are indirect consequences from pandemic containment, notably social measures, business and school closures and international travel restrictions. The magnitude of impacts is determined by the level of prior vulnerability and inequity in the society, and the effectiveness and timeliness of comprehensive pandemic responses. CONCLUSIONS: To exit the acute phase of the pandemic, equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines by all countries and continued high coverage of face masks and hand hygiene are critical entry points. During recovery, governments should strengthen preparedness based on the One Health approach, rebuild resilient health systems and an equitable society, ensure universal health coverage and social protection mechanisms for all. Governments should review progress and challenges from the pandemic and sustain a commitment to implementing the Sustainable Development Goals.

Using group model building to frame the commercial determinants of dietary behaviour in adolescence - proposed methods for online system mapping workshops.

BACKGROUND: Group model building (GMB) is a participatory approach whereby diverse stakeholders can share their views about a problem to create a collective understanding of a complex system. In this article we report our methodological approach to adapt face-to-face GMB processes to an online format to explore the mechanisms by which commercial drivers influence adolescents' dietary behaviour. We use our experiences to make recommendations on how online GMB could be delivered. METHODS: We planned, adapted, piloted, delivered, and evaluated a series of online GMB workshops with adolescents, policymakers and public health practitioners to create a system map of the commercial determinants of dietary behaviour in adolescence. We adapted face-to-face GMB workshops to a series of 3 online GMB workshops with 11 adolescents (16-18 years) living in the Southwest of England, and one GMB workshop with policymakers and public health practitioners. RESULTS: In our experience, adapting, and delivering GMB online is feasible, engaging, cost-saving and an enjoyable experience. Participants gave positive feedback in terms of engagement and enjoyment, and it allowed them to recognise different points of view about the same problem. Participants became familiarised with system thinking and system dynamics concepts, developed a shared understanding of a complex issue and portrayed it in a system map that depicted the most important factors in a causal structure as well as their interactions at various levels. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend using process mapping to understand the overall GMB process in an online environment and piloting the workshops to test the timings and flow between online platforms. For facilitation and delivery, facilitators need to ensure they can create an inviting and engaging online environment, even for participants who decide to have their cameras off. Separating GMB activities into different workshops allowed participants to reflect on the problem being discussed and bring new ideas to subsequent workshops. Evaluating the workshops enabled us to build evidence on the trade-offs between the effectiveness, quality and efficiency of online GMB workshops, and how this might be enhanced to identify leverage points and achieve systemic changes in complex issues. ETHICAL APPROVAL: The research was approved by the University of Bristol's Faculty of Health Sciences Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 99,003) and written consent was received from all participants.

Understanding Urban Green Space Usage through Systems Thinking: A Case Study in Thamesmead, London

Urban green spaces provide environmental, economic, societal and health benefits to cities. However, policy and planning interventions aiming to improve usage have often led to unintended consequences, including, in some circumstances, an actual decline in usage. Previous research has identified factors influencing the use of urban green space, more often with a focus on the ‘quality’ and physical features of the space, rather than on the broader social factors. This study aims to unpack the complexity of factors that influence the use of urban green space through the application of Systems Thinking. A qualitative mixed-method approach integrating System Dynamics with rapid ethnography was adopted to elicit the views of local residents in Thamesmead, London. A thematic analysis of interviews was undertaken to systematically map the causal relations between factors, which were compared to wider stakeholders’ views. Our findings highlight the relevance of dynamics and social influences on the use of green space, which include social interactions and stewardship, health conditions, availability of services and amenities. These are factors that are underexplored in the literature and, sometimes, overlooked in urban green space policy by decision-makers. We infer that attendance of urban green spaces requires time, which may be occupied in other practices determined by local conditions and needs. Expanding the spatial and temporal boundaries of investigation, wider than debates on ‘quality’, should, in our view, increase the chances of identifying critical influences and foster an increased use of green space.

Applying a Health Access Framework to Understand and Address Food Insecurity.

The prevalence of food insecurity (FI) in United States households has fluctuated between 10% and 15% for the past two decades, well above the Healthy People 2030 goal. FI is associated with increased use of healthcare services and the prevalence of multiple health conditions. Our current efforts to address FI may be limited by measures that lack granularity, timeliness, and consideration of larger food access barriers (e.g., availability of food providers and lack of knowledge regarding where to obtain food). If the Healthy People 2030 goal of reducing FI to 6% is to be met, we need better and faster methods for monitoring and tracking FI in order to produce timely interventions. In this paper, we review key contributors of FI from an access barrier perspective, investigate the limitations of current FI measures, and explore how data from one nonprofit organization may enhance our understanding of FI and facilitate access to resources at the local level. We also propose a conceptual framework illustrating how nonprofit organizations may play an important role in understanding and addressing FI and its intertwined social needs, such as housing and healthcare problems.

IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON RENEWABLE ENERGY DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION

The current coronavirus pandemic has had an enormous impact on the demands and consumption of and thereby the trends associated with renewable energy industries. The increasing serious environmental problems caused by consumption of fossil fuels make a strong case for transitioning to clean energy sources, which are less harmful to the environment. In this paper, the authors will conduct an overview of the literature related to changes in renewable energy (RE) demands and risk factors such as market, policy, technology and public acceptance as a result of COVID-19 pandemic, and the emerging opportunities for clean energy transitions under the new policies being implemented, which support RE improvements. This study, by virtue of creating an overview of opportunities for renewable energy in a post-COVID world, could help build confidence and establish a knowledge base among decision makers for deployment of low-carbon technologies and fuels (renewable energy), as part of the recovery plans for a post COVID economy. © American Society for Engineering Management, 2021

Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies.

The rising number of COVID-19 cases and economic implications of lockdown measures indicate the tricky balancing act policy makers face as they implement the subsequent phases of 'unlock'. We develop a model to examine how lockdown and social distancing measures have influenced the behavioral conduct of people. The current situation highlights that policy makers need to focus on bringing awareness and social restraint among people rather than going for stringent lockdown measures. We believe this work will help the policy makers gain insights into the troubled COVID-19 times ahead, and based on the estimates, they can frame policies to navigate these wild waves in the best possible way.